NDC misaligned with Lula’s promises, says OC
According to the network, commitments Brazil has already adopted would lead to emissions lower than those outlined in the target; the lower ambition limit needs to be abandoned.
PRESS RELEASE
BAKU, NOVEMBER 13, 2024 – The emission reduction targets in Brazil’s NDC, submitted this Wednesday (11/13) to the United Nations, are not only misaligned with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C objective; they are also out of sync with commitments already made by Brazil itself. According to an analysis of the NDC published by Observatório do Clima, Brazil’s set of promises and policies would bring the country’s net emissions ceiling to 642 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e), well below the government’s “range” of 1,050 MtCO₂e to 850 MtCO₂e.
The network also recommended that Brazil’s government discard the 1,050 MtCO₂e target and use the more stringent limit of 850 MtCO₂e as a minimum ambition level to guide the development of sectoral mitigation plans to be delivered in 2025.
Observatório do Clima’s technical note compared the NDC with various ambition indicators and the provisions of the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake (GST), approved last year at COP28 in Dubai.
It concluded that Brazil addressed few GST recommendations and that some points lack clarity in the document. In particular, the call in Article 34 of the Dubai decision to “end and reverse deforestation and forest degradation” and in Article 37 to increase the 2030 target’s ambition were unmet. Brazil’s NDC still allows high levels of deforestation by 2035 within both “ranges” of its target.
On another critically important GST recommendation, Article 28d (the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels), Brazil has made significant progress by agreeing to discuss a timeline. As the host of the next COP, Brazil has the power to bring this discussion to the agenda in Belém in 2025. However, the NDC remains silent on Brazil’s plans to expand fossil fuel production—which include increasing oil and gas extraction by more than a third. Brazil’s NDC also emphasizes adaptation, outlining national plan strategies along with objectives and guidelines.
The “ranges” in Brazil’s target do not align with indicators of what would constitute a fair contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5°C. According to calculations underlying Observatório do Clima’s NDC proposal, Brazil needs to limit net emissions to 375 MtCO₂e by 2035 to meet that objective.
Moreover, these targets do not align with Brazil’s current energy policies, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s pledge to eliminate deforestation by 2030, the National Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery (Planaveg), and Brazil’s 2021 commitment to cut methane emissions by 30%. If all these policies and measures were implemented, Brazil’s emissions would be 642 MtCO₂e.
“Brazil’s NDC brings some progress, but it shows a cognitive dissonance. On one hand, it shows that the Ministries of Finance and Environment are working to align public policies toward decarbonization. On the other, it sets emission reduction targets that fall far short of the structural economic transformation required for a 1.5°C world,” says Claudio Angelo, coordinator of international policy at OC. “As COP30 president, Brazil will need to deliver much more ambition than it has with this document.”
About Observatório do Clima – Founded in 2002, it is Brazil’s leading civil society network on the climate agenda, with 119 members, including environmental NGOs, research institutes, and social movements. Its goal is to help build a decarbonized, equitable, prosperous, and sustainable Brazil in the fight against the climate crisis (oc.eco.br). Since 2013, OC has published SEEG, Brazil’s annual greenhouse gas emissions estimate (seeg.eco.br).
Press Contact
Solange A. Barreira – Observatório do Clima
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